Methods

Reference physics, illustrative scenarios — not site-calibrated. These are first-order analytical projections in the GSRM Tier 2 sense — physically grounded but not site-calibrated. The point is responsiveness to the parameter space, not site-specific accuracy. Full Tier 3 (site-calibrated MODFLOW/PHREEQC) is a separate body of work.

1 · Shallow aquifer salinity trajectory

S(t) = S₀ + R · t · M(L, I, C)

Salinity grows linearly from a baseline at a base rate, scaled by a multiplier M that combines leakage rate L, irrigation rate I, and climate scenario C (and the selected intervention package). At default parameters M ≈ 1, reproducing the published current trajectory.

S₀ baseline	4.5 dS/m	src_010
R base rate	2.6 dS/m/year	src_010
Climate factor (observed / RCP4.5 / RCP8.5)	1 / 1.1 / 1.25	—

2 · Cumulative salt loading

Q_salt(t) = Σ V_TSE · c_(Na+Cl) · f_ret · k_soil

Per-year integration of salt delivered to the soil column from reused water. TSE volume comes from the slider; concentration from the IR222 baseline; the irrigation return fraction and soil dissolution multiplier are held constant.

c_(Na+Cl) concentration	1002 mg/L	src_009
f_ret irrigation return fraction	0.25	src_009
k_soil dissolution multiplier	2.5	—

3 · Water table rise

Δh(t) = R_net(L, I, P) · t / n_e

Net recharge (a function of leakage, irrigation, and storm-pulse frequency P) accumulates as head rise, divided by effective porosity. Reported as depth below surface from a starting depth; an amber band marks <2 m and red marks <1 m.

Starting depth	6 m	—
n_e effective porosity	0.15	src_014

4 · Marine compartment salinity

S_marine(t) = S_ambient + ΔS · (1 − e^(−τ·t))

A simple mixing-cell model: near-shore salinity rises asymptotically above ambient Gulf salinity with brine input and turnover damping. Land reuse marginally offsets discharge to the sea.

S_ambient Gulf salinity	39 ppt	src_006
Mixing sensitivity ΔS	1.6	—
Turnover damping τ	0.6	—

Source registry

Every numerical claim in the app references one of these keys. Status flags indicate verification state — figures are provisional and have not been independently re-verified against original documents.

src_001Verify against source

Long-term groundwater storage decline in the UAE Quaternary aquifer

Sherif, M. et al. (2021) · Water (MDPI)

Claim: 238 km³ (1969) → 10 km³ (2015) fresh groundwater storage; ~96% decline

doi:10.3390/w13141 ↗

src_002Triangulate

Artificial vs. natural recharge in Gulf arid aquifer systems (review synthesis)

Multiple Gulf hydrogeology reviews (2020) · Various

Claim: Artificial recharge approximately 5× natural recharge

src_003Verify against source

Rising groundwater tables and urban flooding in Al Ain

Murad et al. 2011; Mohamed et al. 2014 (PIAHS) (2014) · Proceedings of IAHS (PIAHS)

Claim: Al Ain has experienced rising-water-table flooding for ~15 years

doi:10.5194/piahs ↗

src_004Verify against source

Subsea pipeline to discharge treated sewage effluent (TSE)

Smart Water Magazine (2025) · Smart Water Magazine

Claim: 4 km subsea pipeline to discharge TSE the land cannot absorb

source ↗

src_005Verify against source

Dubai Law No. 11 of 2024 establishing DECCA

Government of Dubai (2024) · Dubai Official Gazette

Claim: DECCA established 2024 (~18 months old)

src_006Triangulate

Elevated salinity of the Arabian Gulf relative to typical seawater

Arab Center Washington DC (2023) · Arab Center DC

Claim: Gulf salinity ~25% higher than typical seawater

source ↗

src_007Verify against source

Global brine production concentration

npj Clean Water (2026) · npj Clean Water

Claim: ~55% of global brine production from the Gulf region

source ↗

src_008In hand (GDM)

IR222 Phase 1 — network leakage assessment

GDM Enviro Consulting (internal report) (2024) · IR222 Phase 1

Claim: Network leakage 77,000–93,000 m³/day

src_009In hand (GDM)

IR222 Phase 2 — TSE chemistry baseline

GDM Enviro Consulting (internal report) (2024) · IR222 Phase 2

Claim: TSE Na 252 mg/L, Cl 750 mg/L (max)

src_010Triangulate

Hydrogeological mapping — shallow aquifer salinity trend

ResearchGate hydrogeological mapping (2019) · ResearchGate

Claim: Shallow aquifer salinity rising ~2.6 dS/m/year

src_011Verify against source

Al Ain Municipality groundwater pumping

Abu Dhabi Media Office (2024) · Abu Dhabi Media Office

Claim: Al Ain Municipality pumping ~3,500 m³/day to manage rising tables

src_012Verify against source

Dubai population time series

Dubai Statistics Center (2024) · Dubai Statistics Center

Claim: Dubai population 370,000 (1985) → 3.7 million (2024)

source ↗

src_013Verify against source

UAE desalination capacity time series

IDA Desalination Yearbook / MEED (2024) · IDA / MEED

Claim: UAE installed desalination capacity growth 1980–2024

src_014Triangulate

Effective porosity of sandy substrate (reference value)

Standard hydrogeological reference (2010) · Reference physics

Claim: Effective porosity n_e ≈ 0.15 for sandy substrate